How long do you think it will be before LEDs replace incandescent light bulbs entirely?

Those incredible rates of progress for LEDs have been constant—hardly wavering—since the first visible LED was invented at GE’s Global Research Center by Nick Holonyak in 1962.

That means that over five decades, the cost per lumen has come down by 105. That means that a US$ 1 LED today would have cost US$ 100,000 50 years ago. Those of us who remember those days can attest that LEDs then were used only in expensive, esoteric applications, e.g. in space and in science. That cost trend suggests that today’s US$ 1 LED will cost 10 cents in 10 years. That is a generally accepted projection in the industry, and we’ll probably get there. That forthcoming reduction in cost will make LEDs affordable in almost all applications, and they will probably be the dominant light source in most applications by 2020.

How long do you think it will be before LEDs replace incandescent light bulbs entirely?


The automobile still has not entirely replaced the horse and buggy, people still burn candles for light, and I hope that incandescent lamps are never entirely replaced. Apart from poor efficiency, they are a beautifully elegant product, and some consumers will always love them for special occasions. But, the industry projections suggest that in five years, INC lamp sales will be only about one percent of all lamp sales for general lighting applications. Edison’s iconic invention will have had a 135-year-plus run. I think he would have been extremely pleased.